2021 metais COVID-19 epidemija toliau plito visame pasaulyje, o JAV toliau įgyvendino pinigų švelninimo politiką. Po to, kai Bidenas pradėjo eiti pareigas, jis pasiūlė išlaidų planus, įskaitant 1,9 trilijono ekonominę pagalbą ir 1,2 trilijono infrastruktūros statybos sąskaitą. Perteklinė pinigų emisija buvo neišvengiama, o tai padidino prekių, įskaitant netauriuosius metalus, kainas. Tarp jų alavo kainos kilo priešakyje.
2021 m. alavo kaina tarptautinėje rinkoje rodė vienašališko kilimo tendenciją, o metinė LME skardos taško oficiali kaina pakilo 86 proc. Mažiausia kaina buvo 20.710 Lt/t, o aukščiausia – 39.875 Lt/t. Vidutinė kaina buvo 31 141 už toną, o per metus-palyginti-, ji padidėjo 82 proc. LME atsargos padidėjo 8,6 proc. nuo 1,860 tonų iki 2 020 tonų.
2021 m. LME alavo kainų tendenciją galima apytiksliai suskirstyti į du kilimo ratus, nuo metų pradžios iki rugsėjo pabaigos kaina pakilo nuo 20 970 USD/t iki 35 800 USD/t santykinai aukščiausia per metus. spalio pradžioje, nežymi korekcija iki 33400 USD/t žemumos, po kurios, vėl antroji kilimo banga, lapkričio pabaigoje pasiekė 39875 USD/t. Nuo tada šokas tęsiasi iki metų pabaigos.
Panašiai kaip ir LME alavo kainų tendencija, 2021 m. Šanchajaus alavo neatidėliotina kaina taip pat išėjo iš kylančios rinkos bangos. Šanchajaus rinkos alavo dėmių indeksas per metus išaugo 95 proc. Mažiausia kaina yra 152 838 juanis už toną, didžiausia – 300 063 juaniai už toną, vidurkis – 227 049 juaniai už toną, o per metus -palyginti-, jis padidėjo 87 proc. Atsargos per praėjusį laikotarpį smarkiai sumažėjo nuo 5 574 tonų iki 1 260 tonų, ty 77 procentais.
Customs statistics show that from January to November 2021, China's tin concentrate import volume totaled 164,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25 percent ; Refined tin imports of 4,588 tons, down 71.8 percent year on year; Refined tin exports totaled 14,000 tons, up 239 percent year on year; Net exports of refined tin totaled more than 9,000 tons. China's refined tin production totaled 214,200 tons in 2021, up 11.07 percent year on year, according to the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association.
Remiantis Pasaulio metalų statistikos biuro (WBMS) paskelbtais duomenimis, 2021 m. pasaulinė rafinuoto alavo gamyba buvo 380 100 mln. tonų, o paklausa – 378 800 mln. tonų, tai yra nedidelis perteklius.
The World Bank's latest Global Economic Outlook, released in January, noted that, following a strong rebound in 2021, global economic growth is entering a period of marked slowdown due to new threats posed by novel Coronavirus variants, combined with rising inflation, debt and income inequality. Global growth is expected to slow markedly from 5.5 per cent in 2021 to 4.1 per cent in 2022, with some negative impact on base metals markets, as the release of pent-up demand in the previous phase is completed and fiscal and monetary support policies are withdrawn. As for the tin market, from the supply side, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, as the world's largest refined tin exporter, has talked about tin export twice recently. In November, he told an annual meeting of the central bank that Indonesia could halt tin exports by 2024 to attract investment in the resource processing industry. In January, he said at the 2022 G20 Business Meeting in Indonesia that he would ensure that Indonesia could meet the world's demand for tin, nickel and bauxite, not in the form of raw materials, but in the form of finished or semi-finished products with high added value. I think that the outside world may question the strength of Indonesia's policy implementation because of past experience, but at present, this is very likely to happen. On the one hand, Indonesia's aggressive development of nickel downstream production since 2015 has seen results, not only creating a lot of jobs, but also having a positive impact on its exports and trade balance. The Indonesian government is expected to apply the success of nickel to other mining products. On the other hand, when Joko's second term as president expires in 2024, he is expected to follow the development model of the nickel industry and roll out industrial policies on all mining products, including tin, in which Indonesia is dominant, before the end of his term, thus becoming a highlight of his achievements. Based on the above two factors, if conditions are mature, the Indonesian government can fully advance the implementation date of the suspension of tin export, so there will be great uncertainty in the global tin supply in the next 2-3 years. From the consumption side, according to the international Tin Industry Association estimates, in 2022, the photovoltaic industry is expected to reach 16,000 to 19,000 tons of tin, and last year, the photovoltaic industry with about 14,000 tons of tin, considerable growth. Thus, this year tin market overall consumption will continue to maintain growth.
Kalbant apie kainą, šiais metais tikimasi, kad „Lunxi“ dirbs 40,000 48,000 USD/t diapazone, o „Huxi“ prisitaikys ir šokiruos apie 300 000–350 000 RMB/t.
